Recently, the Peruvian Fisheries Environmental Research Center (Ideapesca) published a study on anchovy, which pointed out that in 2016, affected by the El Niño phenomenon, Peruvian anchovy stocks fell and production fell to the bottom.

The report mentions that if in a productive year, anchovies can increase production by at least 10 million tons. However, the production has gradually decreased in recent years, and the average production of anchovy during 2001-2009 was about 7 million tons; and from 2010, the annual production dropped to only 4 million tons.

According to the research center's investigation, there are many reasons for the double decline in stock production, such as predation by other species, El Nino agglomeration effect, global warming and seawater acidification, many reasons have caused irreversible damage to the survival of organisms in Peruvian waters.

In view of the declining anchovy stocks, the Peruvian Marine Association (IMARPE) announced in 2013 that the optimal spawning capacity of anchovy is 6 million tons, with a minimum of 4 million tons to ensure a sustainable renewal of biomass.

However, Peruvian anchovy is in high demand in the market, and although the marine biomass did not allow fishing before the start of the last fishing season, the season began as usual, leading to a continuous reduction in the size of the anchovy stock. As a result, the catch of 882 fishing vessels that were preparing to catch anchovies in Peruvian waters at that time was only 1/4 of the previous catch.

In the second fishing season in 2015, more than 170 fishing vessels operated in Peruvian waters every day, catching a total of more than 1 million tons of fish in the course of up to 10,940 operations, with an average catch of only 99 tons of anchovy per operation; by the second fishing season in 2016, 350 fishing vessels in 10,061 operations in a total catch of 558,000 tons, with an average catch of 60 tons per vessel per trip; and in During November-December 2016, a total of 340 fishing vessels conducted 16,700 fishing operations, with a catch of about 69 tons per vessel, resulting in an increasing number of vessels abandoning port.

The report states that "the Peruvian anchovy fishery is deteriorating, and if the unit catch continues to decline, the chances of catching juvenile fish will become greater, more detrimental to the sustainability of anchovy."

Peruvian fishmeal price trend in December 2015-November 2016

Peruvian fishmeal prices in 2016 was "M" type trend, there were two high fall phenomenon, 11,800-12,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of January, the end of the year is still hovering at 11,800 yuan / ton, the beginning and end of the year basically stable. A closer look at the direction of the fishmeal market can be divided into four stages.

From the beginning of the year to the end of February, fishmeal offers basically remained at 11800-12000 yuan/ton. During this period of time, fishmeal prices remained relatively firm, mainly due to the phased replenishment demand of terminal feed enterprises after the holidays, coupled with the firmness of the foreign exchange and the significant devaluation of the RMB, fishmeal manufacturers' mentality gained support.

Since early May, the Peruvian Imarpe fish resource survey report came out and showed that the fish resource situation is only 4.42 million tons of low levels. At the same time, the Peruvian Ministry of Production officially announced that the new fishing season could not be opened properly before June, and will depend on the recovery of fish resources during the month of June. After the news that Peru's new season could not open fishing before June, the fuse for the rise of fishmeal at home and abroad was lit. Super steam fishmeal reference offer rose to a high of 14,200 yuan / ton at the end of May. And the high price was maintained until mid to late June.

In August-September, fishmeal prices fell rapidly as foreign prices fell and poor demand traders began to increase sales pressure. By the end of September, fishmeal prices also fell to 11,800 yuan / ton near the beginning of July, down 2,000 yuan / ton. October China entered the off-season demand for fishmeal, the domestic and foreign fishmeal market is waiting for the Peruvian fishing period, the lack of news affecting the market. Therefore, during this period, the price of fishmeal has been stable at around RMB11,800-12,000/ton.

After entering November, fishmeal demand continues to be weak, the transaction is cold, as well as the Ministry of Production of Peru announced a new season of north-central quota of 2 million tons, more than some of the industry's expectations, so that domestic and foreign fishmeal offers continue to weaken under pressure, including super - steam fishmeal prices as low as 11,400 yuan / ton.

However, at the end of November, many Peruvian fishmeal manufacturers appeared to temporarily suspend the phenomenon, so that China's fishmeal holders stronger price sentiment, which is mainly attributed to the high proportion of young fish off the coast of Peru, a small ban on fishing constantly, the depreciation of the yuan to increase the cost of imports and other positive factors; by the end of December, Peruvian super steam fishmeal prices to 11,800-12,000 yuan / ton.

In view of the declining production of anchovies, fishmeal prices this year may continue to rise again on the basis of last year. Of course, price quotes and changes in market demand are inseparable, so 2017 fishmeal market fluctuations are still unpredictable, it is recommended that the industry keep an eye on domestic and international markets to make accurate judgments.