El Nino pushing up global fishing prices?


Peruvian squid catch drops sharply;

Argentine squid production decreased by 80%;

Ecuadorian white shrimp suffered flooding, almost a total loss;

Chilean fishmeal production was reduced by 50%, 250,000 tons;

Vietnam's 100-year drought is expected to reduce aquatic production by 600,000 tons, China's reservoirs released water to rescue;

Indian fishing boats return to port two months early for fishing moratorium;

China's water minister says flood control preparations have been made two months ahead of schedule


There is only one reason for this, El Nino, the strongest since 1997.

New satellite images released by NASA on Jan. 1, 2016, show that the "El Nino" phenomenon over the Pacific Ocean shows no sign of weakening.

Simply put, El Niño is a phenomenon in which the winds of the Pacific Ocean that were blowing westward weaken or simply turn around and blow eastward, making the upper ocean water temperatures warmer in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The cold ocean currents should have been rising, but now the warm currents are coming through so they can't come up.

This year's El Ni phenomenon has caused a significant thinning of the warm water layer that normally accumulates in Australia and Indonesia, however, in the eastern tropical Pacific, the normal cold water surface is covered by a warm water layer. This redistribution of heat resulted in higher ocean temperatures from the central Pacific to the Americas. The phenomenon leads to reduced rainfall in Southeast Asia, and declining rainfall in Indonesia may contribute to the spread of wildfires that blanket the region in suffocating smoke. Meanwhile, El Niño is closely associated with heat waves in India formed by delayed monsoon rains, as well as sea level declines in Pacific islands, widespread coral bleaching that destroys coral reefs, drought in South Africa, flooding in South America and a record hurricane season in the eastern tropical Pacific.

As a result of El Niño, rice, wheat, coffee and other crop yields across the globe have been significantly reduced due to drought and flooding, and have led to higher food prices. Then global aquatic production can be expected to be.

The major squid producing areas are all in the South Pacific, Peru, Argentina, which is affected by the warm ocean currents and the massive death and diving of cold water plankton, resulting in a significant reduction in squid production, and Monday's attack on a Chinese fishing boat in Argentina reflects the deterioration of its fishing environment from the side.

Ecuador is one of the main white shrimp producing areas, and the floods from February also hit the local white shrimp farming hard.

Both predictable droughts and floods have had a major impact on inland aquaculture, and Vietnam, which expects to reduce production by 600,000 tons, has started to request China to open the floodgates. Drought in Africa, drought in central Brazil, drought in the central-eastern United States, drought in Southeast Asia; heavy rains in Ecuador, heavy rains in Peru, heavy rains in California, etc. Fishery production has dropped again and again.

At the same time, fishmeal as feed, also with the decline in sea catches and rise. At present, our traders offer 12,000-12,200 yuan/ton for super grade fishmeal, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous period. It is understood that the current reference offer of Peruvian super steam fishmeal is about $1850/ton CNF, up $150/ton compared to last week. Compared with the super steam fishmeal, the rise of the Japanese-grade fishmeal is slightly subdued, the current reference offer of Peruvian Japanese-grade fishmeal is about CNF1600 ~ 650 USD / ton, up about 50 USD / ton compared to last week.

If El Nino continues, then it can be expected that China's drought in the north and flooding in the south will worsen, and the Minister of Water Affairs has already said at the two meetings that flood control has been deployed 1-2 months in advance this year. If it is as expected, aquaculture in the south such as white shrimp, tilapia, and freshwater aquaculture in the country will be greatly affected.

Reduced seafood catches, farming disasters, rising costs, will lead to price increases. As a practitioner, I hope we are always concerned about the climate situation, which is really relevant to us.


El Nino records

Since the record in 1949, 1949-1951, 1954-1956, 1964-1966, 1970-1971, 1973-1976, late 1984-1985, 1988-1989, 1995-1996, late 1998-early 2000, late 2007- 2008, end of 2010 - 2012.

The current one started in May 2014 and has not been stopped since.