China's aquatic industry experienced a depression period from 2013-2016, and continued to go to capacity. 2016 rainstorm, the industry's capacity was severely hit. In terms of seafood, in 2017, the Ministry of Agriculture readjusted and determined the marine seasonal fishing moratorium system, the start time of the fishing moratorium in all sea areas of the country was unified at 12:00 on May 1, and the fishing moratorium in the East China Sea became 12:00 on May 1 to 12:00 on September 16, which is 4.5 months long, which is the strictest and longest maintained moratorium policy in history since the implementation of the marine seasonal fishing moratorium system in 1995, and seafood The reduction in fishing volume will be partly supplemented by farmed seafood and freshwater aquatic products. The industry continues to go to capacity caused by aquatic supply exceeds demand, so 17 fish prices rose more than 20% year-on-year, including raw fish, sea jealousy and other special fish prices rose more than 50% year-on-year, the aquatic year has come. In the case of high fish prices, aquaculture profits increased, farmers also improve the farming area, breeding density and feed feeding to increase aquatic production, driving the growth of aquatic feed sales last year.

Since entering 2018, the impact of environmental protection to remove nets, the first half of this year, fish prices trended lower than expected. After the end of April with Guizhou, Guangxi suddenly issued a notice to remove the net box, in more than two weeks, about one or two hundred million pounds of fish had to focus on the market, to the end of April and the entire month of May fish prices formed a huge pressure. Guizhou and Guangxi concentrated on removing nets not only disrupted the surrounding southwest China market, the price suppression also slowly spread to Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi, triggering the national bulk freshwater fish prices in the first half of the year than expected.

It is expected that the net box removal will still happen in some provinces in the second half of this year, which will have an impact on fish prices throughout the year.

On the one hand, the most concentrated net box farming is Hubei, Shandong, Henan, Guizhou and Guangxi, etc., before 2018 Hubei, Shandong, Henan demolition net box action has ended, Guizhou and Guangxi will be completed within this year, other provinces may be subject to the central environmental policy pressure in the second half of the year to continue to remove the net box;
On the other hand, the new fish listed in September will also have an impact on fish prices in the second half of the year, from the perspective of total supply, assuming a certain amount of annual breeding, the impact of the removal of nets in a short period of time will only constitute a brief disturbance, this part of the capacity gap in the normal time of listing will be reflected in the rise in fish prices, so we believe that fish prices in 2018 than 2017 will decline, but environmental policies have decided to be able to recover will More slowly, the fish price for the whole year of 18 years compared to 14-16 years will still be at a high level of oscillation.

Looking ahead to 2019, the breeding gap formed by the removal of nets plus the negative impact of this year's fish price is less than expected on the enthusiasm of breeding, we expect that the scale of pond fish breeding in 2019 may be reduced on the basis of 2018, the overall production of conventional freshwater fish in 2019 will show a decline, fish prices will therefore reap the benefits.

China's residents' consumption of aquatic products is growing rapidly, with huge room for growth. Taking the consumption of aquatic products by rural residents as an example, the national per capita consumption of aquatic products in rural areas was 5.36 kg/year in 2012, and grew to 7.49 kg/year in 2016, with an average annual compound growth rate of 8.82%; the per capita consumption of aquatic products in China was 10.4 kg/year in 2014, which is just less than 50% of the average consumption in Asia and much lower than the average consumption in America, Europe and Oceania, etc. The average level. With the improvement of living standards in China, the consumption of high-quality protein such as aquatic products is bound to increase, and the growth space is at least doubled in a horizontal comparison.

From the perspective of the source of aquatic products production, aquaculture aquaculture accounted for the growth trend, especially the growth rate of freshwater aquaculture is the fastest, while the proportion of capture aquaculture is getting lower and lower, the increase in the proportion of aquaculture will promote the growth of aquatic feed demand.
 

Reference to "2018 China Poultry Feed Industry Industry Analysis Report - Deep Market Research and Development Trend Study" published by Guanyin

In order to reduce the dependence of aquaculture on marine fishery resources and the negative impact on water resources, some provinces have issued relevant regulatory documents in recent years to restrict the direct feeding of chilled (frozen) miscellaneous fish in aquaculture. For example, the Bureau of Oceans and Fisheries of Zhejiang Province issued in January 2017 the "Zhejiang Province Implementation of Aquaculture Promotion of Fishery with feed to replace chilled or frozen small fish and shrimp action plan.

Farmers choose to feed feed or chilled, mainly based on the cost of aquaculture and the use of the effect of the decision, feed after years of promotion, the formula is constantly optimized and mature, the effect of feed has been reflected, farmers also gradually accept feed feeding. And, the cost advantage of using feed feeding is also becoming more and more obvious.

With the future national ban on marine juvenile fish more and more stringent, the price of chilled fish will be high, or even be replaced, and, the popularity of aquatic feed is low, compared with the popularity of poultry feed and pig feed industrial feed has a lot of room for development, so aquaculture gradually increase the proportion of feed use will be the future trend.

In addition to environmental policies to promote the popularity of aquatic feed, aquatic feed itself a number of advantages are bound to promote farmers gradually in its favor.

Compared with chilled miscellaneous fish, on the one hand, chilled miscellaneous fish prices by the state management of young miscellaneous fish fishing, price fluctuations, farmers can not do long-term stock reserves, resulting in large fluctuations in farming costs, while the price of aquatic feed is relatively stable, easy for farmers to account for costs;

On the other hand, with the high safety of feed, less pollution of water quality, and feeding chilled fish for a little longer will cause bacteria in the water breeding, increased risk of breeding, a comprehensive view, the use of feed with a higher cost performance. As of 2015, aquaculture with feed accounted for only 21.3% of the aquaculture, therefore, with feed to replace chilled fish is an inevitable trend in the aquaculture industry and huge space.

Lifestyle changes to promote the increasing demand for special aquatic products one by one aquatic products demand to "quality, health-oriented". With the rapid rise of the total amount of aquatic products in China, the problem of "difficult to eat fish" has been effectively solved, and the demand for aquatic products has shifted to the development trend of "quality-oriented and health-oriented".

Eel, grouper, yellowtail, good fish, squid, fresh butterfly braid, abalone, sea cucumber, turtle, turtle and other special aquatic products are rich in the prevention of human cardiovascular disease EPA and DHA and other unsaturated fatty acids (livestock and poultry do not contain DHA and EPA), with the incidence of cardiovascular disease in China is increasing year by year, in the economic level has been able to meet the premise of health consumption of residents, the market for high nutritional value, the Meat tender, good taste, more diverse varieties of health food one by one special aquatic products consumption demand will show a rising trend.

Benefit from the upgrading of consumption, special aquatic feed growth rate is expected to usher in explosive growth.

On the one hand, the rapid growth of special aquatic consumption and high revenue will directly drive the explosive growth of special aquatic feed demand;
On the other hand, special aquatic species, the feed penetration rate of each species varies greatly, the main special aquatic animals in aquaculture, eel, turtle, good fish, by bound and other freshwater species feed penetration rate is high, but the penetration rate of seawater fish with feed is still low, grouper, rhubarb and other seawater fish with feed penetration rate of only about 20%, there is great room for improvement.